Food

  Nigeria’s inflation rate climbed to 15.38 per cent in March 2026, reversing the recent downward trend, as rising costs of food, transportation, and accommodation drove prices up, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. This was the first time the headline inflation rate had increased since March 2025. The latest Consumer Price Index report released on Wednesday showed that headline inflation increased from 15.06 per cent in February 2026, indicating renewed pressure on household spending. According to the report, “in March 2026, the Headline inflation rate rose to 15.38 per cent, up from 15.06 per cent in February 2026,” reflecting a 0.32 percentage point increase on a year-on-year basis. The NBS noted that the Consumer Price Index rose to 135.4 points in March, up 5.4 points from 130.0 in February. On a month-on-month basis, inflation accelerated sharply, highlighting the pace of price increases within a short period. The report stated that “the Headline inflation rate in March 2026 was 4.18 per cent, which was 2.17 per cent higher than the rate recorded in February 2026 (2.01 per cent).” This suggests that, while annual inflation remains below the 27.35 per cent recorded in March 2025, underlying price pressures are building again. A breakdown of the drivers showed that food and non-alcoholic beverages remained the biggest contributor to inflation, accounting for 5.55 percentage points of the headline figure. Restaurants and accommodation services followed with 3.26 percentage points, while transport contributed 1.80 percentage points. The data also revealed a divergence between urban and rural inflation trends. Urban inflation stood at 14.64 per cent year-on-year, while rural inflation was significantly higher at 17.22 per cent, showing stronger price pressures in rural areas. On a monthly basis, rural inflation surged to 6.73 per cent, up from 0.71 per cent in February, indicating a sharp spike in prices in rural communities. Food inflation remained elevated, continuing to exert pressure on households. The NBS said, “the Food inflation rate in March 2026 was 14.31 per cent on a year-on-year basis,” compared to 25.22 per cent in the same period of 2025. This represents an increase from the 12.12 per cent recorded in February 2026, reinforcing the upward movement in food prices during the period. On a month-on-month basis, food inflation stood at 4.17 per cent, reflecting persistent increases in staple food items such as yams, cassava, tomatoes, and potatoes. Core inflation, which excludes volatile agricultural produce and energy, rose to 16.21 per cent year-on-year, down from 27.12 per cent in March 2025. On a monthly basis, core inflation climbed to 4.03 per cent, indicating broader price increases beyond food. The NBS further noted that the average inflation rate for the 12 months ending March 2026 stood at 20.05 per cent, higher than 18.58 per cent recorded in March 2025, suggesting sustained medium-term inflationary pressure. At the state level, inflation remained uneven. Bayelsa recorded the highest year-on-year inflation rate at 27.37 per cent, followed by Sokoto at 26.03 per cent and Bauchi at 23.67 per cent. In contrast, Osun recorded the slowest rise at 5.25 per cent, while Kano and Kaduna posted 9.85 per cent and 10.38 per cent respectively. On a month-on-month basis, Zamfara recorded the highest increase at 10.77 per cent, followed by Bauchi at 9.37 per cent and Sokoto at 9.05 per cent, while Lagos, Akwa Ibom, and Rivers recorded the slowest increases. The report noted that variations across states reflect differences in consumption patterns, warning that direct comparisons may be misleading due to varying weights assigned to goods and services. The World Bank earlier warned that the ongoing surge in global oil prices could directly add around 3.1 percentage points to Nigeria’s headline inflation, as rising fuel costs ripple through the economy. “Overall, an increase in oil prices to about $80 per barrel… would directly add around 3.1 ppts to headline inflation under a full pass-through assumption,” the World Bank noted in its most recent Nigeria Development Update, adding that indirect effects from higher fuel costs on transport, logistics, and food prices could push inflation even higher.