“The Capitol riot revealed a new force in American politics — not merely a mix of right-wing organizations, but a broader mass political movement that has violence at its core and draws strength even from places where Trump supporters are in the minority,” he wrote in The Atlantic.
- A trial is being held to decide whether former President Donald J. Trump is guilty of inciting a deadly mob of his supporters when they stormed the Capitol on Jan. 6, violently breaching security measures and sending lawmakers into hiding as they met to certify President Biden’s victory.
- The House voted 232 to 197 to approve a single article of impeachment, accusing Mr. Trump of “inciting violence against the government of the United States” in his quest to overturn the election results. Ten Republicans joined the Democrats in voting to impeach him.
- To convict Mr. Trump, the Senate would need a two-thirds majority to be in agreement. This means at least 17 Republican senators would have to vote with Senate Democrats to convict.
- A conviction seems unlikely. Last month, only five Republicans in the Senate sided with Democrats in beating back a Republican attempt to dismiss the charges because Mr. Trump is no longer in office. Only 27 senators say they are undecided about whether to convict Mr. Trump.
- If the Senate convicts Mr. Trump, finding him guilty of “inciting violence against the government of the United States,” senators could then vote on whether to bar him from holding future office. That vote would only require a simple majority, and if it came down to party lines, Democrats would prevail with Vice President Kamala Harris casting the tiebreaking vote.
- If the Senate does not convict Mr. Trump, the former president could be eligible to run for public office once again. Public opinion surveys show that he remains by far the most popular national figure in the Republican Party.
That force shows little sign of backing down: Two weeks ago, the Homeland Security Department issued a rare terrorism alert warning that violent extremists were emboldened by the attack and motivated by “the presidential transition, as well as other perceived grievances fueled by false narratives.”
There is some indication that such violent acts have support among some Americans, particularly within the Republican Party. A survey conducted by the American Enterprise Institute this week found that 55 percent of Republicans back the use of force as a way to “arrest the decline of the traditional American way of life,” as compared with 35 percent of independents and 22 percent of Democrats.
In their impeachment defense, lawyers for Mr. Trump didn’t focus on the attackers but the former president, arguing that he didn’t intend to incite a violent attack. The parts of his rhetoric cited by the House impeachment managers were “selectively edited” and the video was manipulated, they said. The Trump team showed video montages of Democrats using the word “fight” — further torturing an already worn piece of political rhetoric. (Of course, none of those politicians, it’s worth noting, were being tried for inciting a riot.)
And they used Mr. Trump’s comments in 2017 after the events in Charlottesville, Va. — that there were “very fine people on both sides” — to argue that his words have long been misconstrued. Former homeland security officials have cited those remarks as a defining moment that emboldened extremists.
Many Republicans in Congress are likely to seize upon this question of intent. Even with Mr. Trump out of office, crossing the former president would mean alienating a significant part of their base. Those, like Senator Ted Cruz of Texas, who promoted Mr. Trump’s baseless claims of election fraud leading up to the ransacking at the Capitol, show no signs of changing their minds. It’s quite likely that the final number of Republicans who vote for conviction will be well below the two-thirds majority required.
Eventually, the debate over Mr. Trump’s culpability will be left to the history books. What will remain indisputable, however, is that his words mattered. Extremist violence flourished under his watch. And uprooting that will be a far more difficult national undertaking than a few long days in the Senate.